Predicting Sovereign Default
نویسندگان
چکیده
With the financial crises ongoing in Greece and Venezuela, sovereign debt crises have become more and more prominent in the public eye. Thus, it has become important to be able to predict when nations will enter such debt crises. We collected publicly available data in order to train models to predict, given a nation’s economic status in one year, whether they would be in a debt crisis the next year. We were able to predict sovereign debt crises with good accuracy, even with the elimination of a feature we initially thought was too strongly correlated with the output, with our random forest model performing the best.
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